Explore the decomposition
Set the ability contribution and the inexperience penalty; the route remainder and the net gap follow as arithmetic. Both sliders are limited to the paper's 95% confidence intervals, so you cannot dial in values the data reject.
This is arithmetic on the paper's components, not re-estimation. Moving the sliders shows how the residual would change under different assumptions; it does not produce new estimates.
Ability contribution
Inexperience penalty
Route remainder (implied)
Net gap (implied)
Net gap = ability + inexperience + route remainder: −0.16σ = +0.25σ + −0.30σ + −0.10σ
Allowed range (95% CI): [+0.06σ, +0.42σ]
Allowed range (95% CI): [−0.55σ, −0.09σ]
Route remainder (implied)
−0.10σ
95% CI: [−0.37σ, +0.17σ] — 0
The route remainder's reported 95% interval, [−0.37, +0.17], is fixed and drawn behind the value at all times. It comes from the paper's estimation and does not change with the sliders.
Currently at the paper's estimates.
Two reminders while you slide
- The route remainder is a remainder. It absorbs training, motivation, unobserved selection and any ability-by-experience interaction — it is not an estimated effect of the training route.
- The paper's net gap of −0.16σ is not statistically distinguishable from zero. Any value you produce here inherits that imprecision and adds nothing to it.